Vancouver Real Estate Blog

British Columbia Real Estate Association First Quarter Housing Forecast Update Calls For Average Performance For Housing Market In 2012

Vancouver, BC – January 27, 2012. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2012 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update.“Modest economic growth at home and abroad is expected to limit growth in consumer demand both this year and in 2013,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 2.1 per cent from 76,817 units in 2011 to 78,400 units this year, increasing a further 2.7 per cent to 80,500 units in 2013. The 15-year average is 79,000 unit sales. A record 106,310 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

"While European sovereign debt concerns and a sluggish US economy will continue to impact consumer confidence, strong demand in the bond market is expected to keep mortgage interest rates at or near record lows for most of 2012,” added Muir.

Home prices in most BC markets are forecast to experience little change over the next 24 months as the supply of homes for sale more closely matches consumer demand. The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to edge down 2.2 per cent to $548,500 this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2013, albeit increasing 0.8 per cent to $553,000.

For a PDF version of this news release, including data table, follow this link:
http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/news-2012/2012-01-27forecast.pdf

Home Sales Increase Last Year (2011) Reports The British Columbia Real Estate Association

Vancouver, BC – January 13, 2012. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC climbed 14.3 per cent to $43.1 billion in 2011. A total of 76,817 homes were sold in BC in 2011, up 2.9 per cent from 2010. The average annual MLS® residential price climbed 11.1 per cent to $561,026 over the same period.

 

"Low mortgage interest rates and gradually improving economic conditions contributed to a moderate increase in consumer demand last year," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "BC home sales came in about on par with their 15-year average, but fell well below their ten-year average of over 88,000 units."

 

Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and the North experienced the largest percentage increase in unit sales last year, while consumer demand edged lower in Victoria and on Vancouver Island.

 

BC residential unit sales in December dipped 1.7 per cent to 4,186 units, while the average MLS® residential price was 2.8 per cent lower than in December 2010.

 

Housing Forecast Points To Market Stability

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2011 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast earlier this month.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to rise 3.2 per cent from 74,640 units in 2010 to 77,000 units this year, increasing a further 3.9 per cent to 80,000 units in 2012.

“Low mortgage interest rates are expected to persist through 2012 keeping affordability on an even keel,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, headwinds on the economic front will constrain consumer demand over the next year to below the ten-year average of 87,600 units.” A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

“Moderate consumer demand combined with larger inventories of homes for sale means BC housing markets will experience little upward pressure on home prices through 2012,” added Muir. The average MLS® residential price in the province is estimated to rise 11.8 per cent to $564,600 this year, and is forecast to decline 2.5 per cent to $550,500 in 2012.

Click here to download the full BCREA Housing Forecast

Does Affordable Rental Housing Lead To Lower Property Values?

To find out the facts, we went looking for credible research on the topic. We started with the Chicago-based National Association of REALTORS® online library where we found links to more than 20 comprehensive studies and articles, some of which, in turn, reviewed and analyzed data from other studies.

The authors were academics, government, non-profits and independent researchers, ranging from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies to the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management.

The geographic areas studied included high-density urban areas, upscale suburbs and rural areas. Typically, studies compared the sale prices of nearby homes before, during and after rental housing is built.

British Columbia's Housing Market Second Quarter - Expanding Markets

British Columbia's economy is expanding just ahead of the national average, in the foreseeable future to at least Fall 2012. This is based on employment gains, population growth from inter-provincial and international migration.

The Greater Vancouver Area will see the largest increase of new home construction as this area will see the greatest employment and population growth.

20,000 households are moving into Vancouver related to the inter-provincial and international immigrants.

Stable housing demand will occur in Victoria, Kelowna and Abbotsford in the resale markets.

To read the full report follow the link below;

 

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/65442/65442_2011_Q02.pdf

 

Vancouver Real Estate And Canada's Real Estate Market Report From Re/Max "First Time Buyers Report"

Real Estate in Vancouver and the rest of Canada  has been driven by the threat of higher interest rates down the road, first-time buyers are contributing to strong upward momentum in residential housing markets across the country,according to a report released today by RE/MAX.

The RE/MAX First-Time Buyers Report, highlighting trends and developments in nineteen major Canadian centres, found that low interest rates and balanced market conditions have provided significant impetus in 2011, particularly at lower price points. Just over 30 per cent of markets arereporting sales in excess of 2010 levels as a result, while almost 70 per cent have experienced an upswing in average price. Leading the country in terms of percentage increases in the number of homessold are Western Canadian markets, including Saskatoon (up close to 15 per cent), Greater Vancouver(up close to 12 per cent), and Winnipeg (up just over 11 per cent). With an average price hike of close to20 per cent year-to-date (February), Greater Vancouver continues to show unprecedented strength,followed by Hamilton-Burlington (eight per cent), Quebec City (seven per cent), Winnipeg (close toseven per cent), Greater Toronto (five per cent), and Greater Montreal (five per cent).

“With the Canadian economy on firmer footing overall, residential real estate is well-positioned moving into the traditionally busy spring market,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX ofWestern Canada. “Consumer confidence is climbing in conjunction with economic performance, andconcerns over a secondary recession fade with each passing day. The mood is cautiously optimistic as first-time buyers enter the market.”

Inventory levels, while tight in several larger centres, are more balanced overall, giving first-time buyers a good selection of housing product from which to choose. Not surprisingly, condominium apartments and town homes have become the first step for many entry-level purchasers, especially in Greater Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna, Edmonton, Calgary, London-St. Thomas, Hamilton-Burlington, Greater Toronto, the Island of Montreal, and Halifax-Dartmouth where average prices have risen unabated in recent years.

“Despite home ownership rates approaching 70 per cent, there is clearly room for growth as entry-level buyers make their moves from coast-to-coast, undeterred by higher housing values and changes to lending criteria” says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Many purchasers intent on realizing home ownership are scaling back on expectations or are willing to sacrifice location, quality and/or size to make their dream a reality – not unlike generations before them.”

Changes to recent financing criteria have not created the anticipated run up in activity in most markets. From a financial standpoint, most rookie home buyers remain quite prudent. Those making the leap are not doing it lightly, buying within their means. While this most recent round of policy tightening will likely have a negligible effect on demand, the message is getting across.

Affordability remains a growing concern in most markets, and—aside from first-time purchasers—no one is more in tune with that than housing planners and developers. In fact, the growing demand for reasonably-priced product is creating a shift in the country’s housing mix. That trend is expected to gain traction in coming years, as builders look to create greater options for those seeking to realize home ownership. In recent years, builders have helped ease the move to home ownership by concentrating on intensification—condominium buildings with smaller suites and small-lot subdivisions offering detached, compact homes at a fraction of the cost of a traditional single-family home. On the flip side, the affordability factor is also breathing new life into tired older neighbourhoods, and that, in turn, is contributing to rising values.

As prices escalate, first-time buyers are indeed spending more—some out of necessity, but others are simply in a position to do so. Unlike in years past—a greater percentage of today’s first-time buyer pool is comprised of dual-income, college or university-educated couples with solid earnings. They’re spending close to average price or slightly more to secure—in most cases—a better location or a home that will grow with them. Yet, the fact remains that those on a tighter budget can get in for considerably less, with reasonable choices in every major market across the country. While some may feel discouraged by eroding affordability levels, the underlying confidence in the concept of home ownership is rising.

“While market conditions are one thing that influences first-time buyers, few things trump the fundamental belief in home ownership,” says Sylvain Dansereau, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Quebec. “Today’s entry-level buyers are steadfast in their mindset. They know they have to live somewhere, but they simply don’t want to pay someone else’s mortgage. Savvy or practical, they remain a driving force. The bottom line is that the demand for entry-level product will remain steady. The role of starter homes in the marketplace is becoming ever more vital."

RE/MAX is Canada’s leading real estate organization with over 18,000 sales associates situated throughout its more than 690 independently-owned and operated offices in Canada. The RE/MAX network, now in it's 38th year, is a global real estate system operating in 80 countries, with over 6,300  independently-owned offices and over 92,000 member sales associates. RE/MAX realtors lead the industry in professional designations, experience and production while providing real estate services in residential, commercial, referral, and asset management. For more information visit the following website: www.remax.ca

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Released It's Housing Starts for February 2011

Apartments, townhouses and semi detached homes made up more than 85% of all housing starts in February 2011. Housing starts totalled 1,414 across the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA).

To read the full report click the link below:

 

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64175/64175_2011_M03.pdf

 

Canada Housing and mortgage Corporation released their February 2011 Housing starts.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is reporting that there were 1,414 housing starts in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area(CMA). These starts include apartments, townhomes and detached homes. "Over 85% of the housing starts were in Multi-family" says CMHC. Most of these were located in richmond, Coquitlam and Surrey with easy access to major transportation routes.

Nationally we saw 181,900 housing starts.

In British Columbia we saw 24,100 starts.

For more information and to see the full report follow the link below:

www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketetinformation or call 1-800-668-2643

British Columbia Housing Forecast from the Real Estate Association of British Columbia

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its Housing Forecast for the first quarter of 2011 today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 8 per cent from 74,640 units in 2010 to 80,900 units this year, and increase another 4 per cent to 83,950 units in 2012.

“Employment and population growth will fuel consumer demand over the next two years. However, higher mortgage interest rates and tighter credit conditions for low equity home buyers will limit home sales to below the ten-year average of 87,600 units.”   Says Cameron Muir, Chief Economist with BCREA.

Cameron Muir summerized the province this way."Regional market differences continue in the province, with Vancouver trending into a seller’s market, while the Okanagan, Kootenay and Kamloops markets trend from a buyer’s market toward balanced conditions.”

To read more follow this link:www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/HousingForecast.pdf.

CMHC Housing Market Information for British Columbia 2010

In 2010 23,600 home starts in British Columbia(BC) compared to 13,833 2009. Home prices increased across BC.

Apartments accounted for 70% of all multiple unit home starts. 9209 single - detached homes were started in BC. Factors that affected home growth were as follows:

A) Strong resale market in the later part of 2009.

B) Increase in interest rates in the summer of 2010

C) July 1st implementation of Harmonized Sales Tax(HST)

There were 74,760 resales for 2010

Economic Factors affecting the Housing Market:

1) Employment growth which led British Columbia to gain back all it's job losses due to the recession.

2) Strong Migration spurred on home ownership and rentals. An estimate of 39,000 in the first 3/4 of the year migrated from international destinations.

3) Interest rates stabilized in the 3rd quarter of 2010.

To read the full report follow the link below:

 

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64151/64151_2011_Q01.pdf